Tesla Model 3 wait list now stretches out to 12 months, Model Y unknown (2024)

Tesla wait times have jumped yet again, with new customers now being told they could be waiting one year to get a new Model 3.

While Tesla in Australia had its biggest quarter of deliveries in the first 3 months of 2022, the latest delay is being attributed to the shutdown of Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai.

Although production has now re-commenced, output is now rolling along at just a third of its pre-shutdown numbers. What impact does this slowing of production at Tesla’s gigafactory have on Tesla deliveries for Australians who have a Tesla Model 3 on order?

Tesla produced over 2300 cars per day at its peak in Shanghai

Before the shutdown that started on March 28th in Shanghai, Tesla produced over 2,305 cars a day in the month of February when the production was last at 100%. This was up from January when the production was at 2,271 units for the month.

In March according to CPCA data, despite losing the last 3 days of production, Tesla still managed to sell 65,814 cars giving it a weighted production rate of 2,123. Total deliveries out of the plant rose to 181,544 over the first quarter according to CPCA.

Tesla Model 3 wait list now stretches out to 12 months, Model Y unknown (1)Since the shutdown, the production had not resumed until April 19th with a reduced workforce.

The impact of that shutdown has been a loss in production of over 50,000 Tesla Model 3s and Model Ys for the export markets like ours here in Australia. So what impact has this had for Australians who have a Tesla Model 3 on order?

Australians with Tesla Model 3 on orders in limbo

Many Australians who decided to buy a Tesla late in 2021 and since the beginning of this year are seeing significant increase in wait times.

Even with the increased production at Shanghai that got up to over 180,000 Tesla EVs in the first 3 months before the shutdown, Australian wait times had gone up considerably to up to 9 months for new orders in early April 2022.

Tesla Model 3 wait list now stretches out to 12 months, Model Y unknown (2)

By April 27, Tesla further increased the wait times in Australia for new orders for up to 12 months. This means that any new orders now will be delivered in March or April 2023.

On top of the price increases of $4,000 in March 2022, the demand continues to outstrip supply for Australia’s best selling EV.

The Driven understands that some new Tesla Model 3 customers who have placed an order for Tesla Model 3 back in December 2021 are yet to receive their VIN from the factory which indicates that their car is yet to be produced.

The schedules at the factory for production are generally done well in advance so many Australians with subsequent orders after December 2021 could see their delivery times pushed out further than Tesla’s original estimate at the time of order.

Model Y for Australian market could face a blow

On Tesla’s Q1 earnings call, it was noted that the second Quarter production will have impact on customer orders in the export and local market: “We’ve lost about a month of build volume out of our factory in Shanghai [in Q2] due to COVID-related shutdowns,” said Tesla CFO Zach Kirkhorn.

This has been a further blow for those in Australia waiting to place an order on the more spacious Model Y after the order page appeared online briefly earlier in April 2022.

As reported earlier, production did resume slowly on April 19th with a workforce of about 8,000 out of around 18,000 having returned.

This would indicate a production rate of about 930 cars a day if the parts supply can keep up which is a very difficult situation to manage given the logistical challenges around getting parts to the plant during this greater Shanghai lockdown.

Tesla Model 3 wait list now stretches out to 12 months, Model Y unknown (3)

It would take the Shanghai factory quite a bit of time to get the production rate back up to over 2,000 cars a day with some analysts expecting that to happen by the end of May.

This adds further pressure on Tesla to keep the demand of any exported Shanghai produced models like the Tesla Model Y under control, including for markets like ours here in Australia.

Predictions for Australian Tesla Deliveries in 2022

From the extended shutdowns, slow ramp up in production and staffing issues being faced by Tesla in Shanghai, the wait times will continue to soar. Most new Australian orders for the Tesla Model 3 would have a delivery time of March 2023 at best.

To curb the current Tesla Model 3 demand, another price increase on the base price and accessories might be not too far away as seen by the recent increase in the Long Range model’s bigger wheels option.

For existing customers of the Tesla Model 3, the production is at least 1 month behind schedule and with more shipping delays on the cards, 1-2 months of delay in deliveries is expected.

With soaring demand for EVs in Australia and Tesla Model 3 VINs yet to be released for thousands of Australian customers, many prospective EV buyers will continue to face delays for the most part of 2022.

Overall, EV uptake will continue to rise this year and with the introduction of newer EV models from Tesla, BYD, MG and others, 2022 is set to be a pivotal year for the Australian EV market.

This article has been updated with correct production commencement dates (April 19 not March 19).

Tesla Model 3 wait list now stretches out to 12 months, Model Y unknown (4)

Riz Akhtar

Rizis the founder of carloop based in Melbourne, specialising in Australian EV data, insight reports and trends. He is a mechanical engineer who spent the first 7 years of his career building transport infrastructure before starting carloop. He has a passion for cars, particularly EVs and wants to help reduce transport emissions in Australia. He currently drives a red Tesla Model 3.

Tesla Model 3 wait list now stretches out to 12 months, Model Y unknown (2024)

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